Fig. 1

Geographical distribution evaluation indices of individual predictive models and accuracy. a Geographical distribution and local P. pseudocerasus resources. b AUC model accuracy test of eight climate models. c TSS model accuracy test of eight climate models. d MaxEnt model accuracy tests by fractional value. e MaxEnt model accuracy tests by sensitivity. f–i Linear regression analysis of Shandong temperature (f), Sichuan temperature (g), Shandong precipitation (h), and Sichuan precipitation (i). j Correlation analysis of model climate data and observed climate data. k Classification labels of the confusion matrix. l–o Confusion matrices of Shandong temperature (l), Shandong precipitation (m), Sichuan temperature (n), and precipitation (o). In b–c, the grey dots represent the data for each distribution. In j, ** indicates significance of the correlation at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). In f–o, temperature and precipitation data are calculated as monthly average values, with red and blue lines representing the fitted curves of observed and predicted data, respectively